Case 2: 2009 Division I-A Rosters as Population Source

In this analysis, the population sample was the rosters of all 120 I-A teams as downloaded from espn.com. Using the decay curve built from the analysis of current players (see Calculating Populations for details) we see in the first figure, before colleges are used as negative population sources, that the strongest recruiting area appears to be a corridor from Georgia north to Ohio--basically the heart of the ACC/Big 10/SEC trifecta. This is surprising given the emphasis placed on Texas and Florida. There are a couple ways to explain this: 1.) each of these states is naturally overhyped due to its large population and land mass--looking through a roster and seeing that there are many players from Texas sticks out much more then recalling all recruits from Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee which sum to a similar population as Texas over a smaller geographic area (hence less dilution). The second contributing factor is that Texas and Florida lack southerly neighbors to contribute to their effective populations. Interestingly, UWash again falls to the bottom of the list.

Quite unexpectedly these hotspots of southern California, Texas, and Florida actually jump right out once we subtract for the presence of competing colleges. Part of this is due to the lack of schools further south to withdraw recruits but this is certainly not the entire reason, given the large number of schools in eastern Texas in close proximity. The data suggest that in fact Texas and Florida, in spite of their large number of I-A teams, are nowhere near the saturation point for supporting teams. Similarly it suggests that schools such as Florida International and Florida Atlantic, both near the top of the effective population list for schools are underperforming. It also explains the great success of a team like South Florida which has developed a high level I-A program in a short period of time. Southern California is also able to support more prominent programs--the large number of recruits only have USC, UCLA, and San Diego State nearby to choose from.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan region. This part of the country is starved for recruits given the large number of schools competing for the local talent pool. Quite strikingly, Michigan ranks 118th out of 120 in terms of access to recruits with Notre Dame barely ahead at 115th (these are two of the three all-time winningest programs). Of course Notre Dame is bolstered by its status as a national university with lots of TV coverage, but this map doesn't even factor in the desirability of spending four years in South Bend! This great white patch is also of great interest given the national debate regarding the recent mediocrity of Midwest football and indicates a school like Purdue is right to focus a high degree of recruiting focus to Florida where there are more recruits than teams to play for.

One caveat to this assessment is that the Great White Patch is home to a relatively high number of teams outside the Big 6 conferences. A great example is the state of Ohio with only two teams--Ohio State and Cincinnati--in Big 6 conferences plus another six in smaller conferences. A future analysis [added here] will account for the greater recruiting competition from such big name schools versus those in less glorified conferences.