Case 2, Sub-analysis 1: 2009 Division I-A Rosters as Population Source, Scaling Competition by Conference

Continuing from the Case 2 analysis, in this study I look scale the competitive effect of other schools by whether or not they are in Big 6 or "AQ" (auto-qualifier) conferences. With respect to the mathematics, I multiply the negative populations of schools that are not one of the Big 6 conferences by some factor less than 1 (e.g. 0.50, 0.75, et cetera).

The point of this is to recognize that higher profile programs are more successful in attracting recruits and therefore it is more difficult for another school nearby to attract recruits. One great example of where this scaling factor is expected to have a big impact is in the state of Ohio with its plethora of MAC schools (but only Ohio State and Cincinnati in Big 6 conferences). The scaling factor accounts for the fact that Ohio State rarely worries about losing recruits to Akron (or Toledo or Kent State or Miami Ohio...).

A couple of important notes before diving in. 1.) I did not count Notre Dame as a Big 6 conference. Or Boise State. Or Utah, etc. A flaw in this study, perhaps, but I plan on using other metrics to gauge a program's prestige in the future independent of conference affiliation. 2.) You'll notice that each college's effective population is higher than it the Case 2 base case. I made sure after applying a school's negative population effect to the entire country to add that population back to the school itself. Otherwise the ranking would be weighted towards small schools. Adding back the population to each school recognizes that schools aren't competing with themselves. This is not an issue (for ranking purposes) in the first Case 2 analysis because each school is decremented by the same amount.

As the maps below indicate, as non-AQ schools' competitive effect is scaled down the Midwest is reclaimed (The Great Red Patch disappears) and Florida's dominance creeps upward into Georgia. Michigan, all the way down at 118 in the original analysis makes it all the way up to 64 when non-AQ schools are scaled down to zero. The flipside of the improvement both north and south east of the Mississippi is the drop in the ratings by the Pacific Northwest schools. The west has a relatively high ratio of AQ:non-AQ teams so schools in already sparsely-populated areas suffer. Idaho and its close neighbor Washington State in particular suffer. In other words, Idaho coach Robb Akey deserves all the credit he gets (and more) for turning the Idaho program around. Also notable are the Oregon and Washington PAC-10 pairs bringing up the bottom of the rankings. While all four of these schools have garnered elite rankings in the past twenty years, all four have not been playing at a high level simultaneously (that I am aware of) and the limited number of recruits for this area may explain why. These programs should look to recruit more nationally in order to buffer against a recruiting uptake at any of the other three schools.

In contrast to the northwest and Idaho's turnaround, June Jones at SMU, working some magic in only his second year should be able to really get that program running again given the school's location (it'll be similarly interesting to see how Gary Patterson can continue to build the TCU program). It's interesting to see the Texas schools creep up to the top of the rankings by the time the non-AQ schools are scaled by 50%, in fact SMU has the top ranking from 0.50 down to 0. This is not surprising given the large number of non-AQ schools in Texas--out of 9 total, only 4 are in Big 6 conferences (all in the Big XII), and Texas Tech is well west of the eastern cluster of schools (and population). A similar event occurs in Louisiana where only one (LSU) of five schools is in a Big 6 conference. The three more non-AQ schools in Alabama and Mississippi result in a map, when the non-AQ schools are scaled down by half or more, with a great purple swath from Texas to Georgia (Florida drops down a bit due to the large number of AQ schools in a small area).

All maps below are after the college subtraction step, to see the original map head back to the Case 2 homepage.

Figure 1 - Scale factor = 1.0. In other words, this is the same map at the end of the Case 2 base case scenario. The Great Red Patch in the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan triangle is visible.

Figure 2 - Scale factor = 0.75. The Florida, Texas, SoCal hotspots are still visible but the Great Red Patch is noticably less red-orange (more populous). The Florida population center has also drifted north a bit and Texas has 3 more locations in the top 10.

Figure 3 - Scale factor = 0.667. The SoCal spot is dimming. More spots in Texas, and they're drifting east towards Florida.

Figure 4 - Scale factor = 0.50. Georgia now a major factor as is Louisiana as the Texas centers creep east.

Figure 5 - Scale factor = 0.333. Georgia spots spreading west towards Alabama and Texas/Louisiana spots creeping east. Basically one large purple region across the south.

Figure 6 - Scale factor = 0.25. More concentration in the southeast.

Figure 7 - Scale factor = 0.0. Mississippi now has two locations in the top 10, and Florida none. Darker region actually extending into the Great Red Patch area whose population is no longer dragged down by the large number of non-Big 6 teams. Ohio even shows hints of purple.

Figure 8 - Composite of, from left to right, Scale factor = 1.0, 0.667 (top row), 0.333, 0.0 (bottom row).


Scale Factor = 1 Scale Factor = 0.75 Scale Factor = 0.50 Scale Factor = 0.25 Scale Factor = 0.0
Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop.
1 Florida Atlantic 424 1 UCF 541 1 SMU 800 1 SMU 1119 1 SMU 1438
2 South Florida 416 2 Florida Atlantic 529 2 UCF 772 2 TCU 1070 2 TCU 1383
3 UCF 409 3 South Florida 517 3 TCU 758 3 North Texas 1055 3 North Texas 1373
4 FIU 409 4 FIU 507 4 North Texas 738 4 Houston 1046 4 Houston 1363
5 Miami 401 5 SMU 480 5 Florida Atlantic 734 5 Rice 1046 5 Rice 1363
6 Florida 346 6 Miami 474 6 Houston 729 6 Troy 1007 6 Louisiana Tech 1345
7 Houston 295 7 Florida 463 7 Rice 729 7 Louisiana Tech 1007 7 Louisiana-Monroe 1340
8 Rice 295 8 TCU 446 8 South Florida 717 8 UCF 1003 8 Southern Miss 1326
9 San Diego State 283 9 North Texas 421 9 FIU 706 9 Southern Miss 1003 9 UAB 1321
10 UCLA 281 10 Texas A&M 417 10 Troy 699 10 Louisiana-Monroe 1000 10 Troy 1315
11 USC 281 11 Florida State 416 11 Tulane 696 11 Tulane 999 11 Tulane 1303
12 Florida State 276 12 Houston 412 12 Louisiana-Lafayette 682 12 Louisiana-Lafayette 990 12 Louisiana-Lafayette 1298
13 SMU 261 13 Rice 412 13 Texas A&M 681 13 UAB 984 13 UCF 1235
14 Texas A&M 253 14 Baylor 397 14 Florida 680 14 Georgia Tech 946 14 Georgia Tech 1230
15 TCU 233 15 Tulane 393 15 Southern Miss 680 15 Texas A&M 946 15 Auburn 1220
16 Baylor 229 16 Troy 391 16 Louisiana Tech 668 16 Florida Atlantic 940 16 Memphis 1220
17 Texas 216 17 Georgia Tech 377 17 Baylor 665 17 Auburn 934 17 Texas A&M 1210
18 North Texas 204 18 Louisiana-Lafayette 373 18 Georgia Tech 662 18 Baylor 934 18 LSU 1202
19 Georgia Tech 193 19 Auburn 362 19 Louisiana-Monroe 659 19 South Florida 918 19 Baylor 1202
20 Tulane 190 20 Southern Miss 357 20 Florida State 656 20 LSU 916 20 Alabama 1191
21 Troy 183 21 Texas 356 21 Auburn 648 21 FIU 905 21 Middle Tennessee 1175
22 Auburn 176 22 San Diego State 354 22 UAB 648 22 Florida 897 22 Arkansas State 1162
23 Louisiana-Lafayettee 165 23 LSU 342 23 Miami 646 23 Florida State 895 23 Mississippi State 1154
24 LSU 155 24 Louisiana Tech 330 24 LSU 629 24 Alabama 882 24 Florida Atlantic 1145
25 Georgia 139 25 Louisiana-Monroe 318 25 Texas 596 25 Memphis 868 25 Florida State 1135
26 Southern Miss 134 26 Georgia 313 26 Georgia 586 26 Georgia 860 26 Georgia 1133
27 South Carolina 92 27 UAB 311 27 Alabama 573 27 Mississippi State 841 27 Ole Miss 1126
28 Louisiana Tech 91 28 Alabama 264 28 Mississippi State 527 28 Texas 835 28 South Florida 1118
29 Louisiana-Monroe 78 29 South Carolina 240 29 San Diego State 526 29 Middle Tennessee 822 29 Florida 1114
30 Fresno State 76 30 UCLA 231 30 Memphis 516 30 Miami 818 30 FIU 1104
31 UAB 74 31 USC 231 31 Clemson 494 31 Arkansas State 815 31 Western Kentucky 1095
32 Alabama 55 32 Clemson 219 32 South Carolina 489 32 Ole Miss 805 32 Texas 1075
33 San Jose State 45 33 Mississippi State 214 33 Ole Miss 484 33 Clemson 769 33 Vanderbilt 1048
34 California 45 34 Memphis 163 34 Middle Tennessee 470 34 Western Kentucky 738 34 Clemson 1044
35 Clemson 45 35 Ole Miss 163 35 Arkansas State 468 35 South Carolina 737 35 Miami (OH) 1037
36 Stanford 43 36 Fresno State 159 36 Tulsa 404 36 Vanderbilt 720 36 Akron 1033
37 UNLV 34 37 UNLV 137 37 Oklahoma 403 37 Tulsa 711 37 Kent State 1026
38 Arizona State 3 38 Oklahoma 132 38 Tennessee 397 38 Tennessee 699 38 Tulsa 1019
39 Mississippi State 0 39 Arkansas State 121 39 Vanderbilt 392 39 San Diego State 697 39 Bowling Green 1015
40 Hawaii 0 40 Middle Tennessee 117 40 UCLA 381 40 Akron 678 40 Ohio 1014
41 Oklahoma -39 41 San Jose State 114 41 USC 381 41 Kent State 674 41 Ball State 1012
42 Arizona -39 42 Navy 106 42 Western Kentucky 381 42 Oklahoma 674 42 Marshall 1007
43 Nevada -47 43 ECU 102 43 Navy 378 43 Miami (OH) 663 43 Toledo 1001
44 Texas Tech -56 44 Tulsa 96 44 Arkansas 369 44 Arkansas 659 44 Tennessee 1000
45 ECU -57 45 Tennessee 95 45 ECU 361 45 Ohio 657 45 Miami 991
46 Ole Miss -58 46 Stanford 83 46 Fresno State 343 46 Marshall 656 46 South Carolina 986
47 Navy -67 47 California 82 47 UNLV 339 47 Navy 650 47 Eastern Michigan 949
48 Maryland -70 48 Temple 80 48 Temple 335 48 Bowling Green 639 48 Arkansas 949
49 Temple -75 49 Maryland 80 49 Maryland 331 49 Ball State 637 49 Ohio State 945
50 Rutgers -88 50 Arkansas 80 50 Kent State 323 50 Toledo 629 50 Oklahoma 944
51 Memphis -89 51 Arizona State 67 51 Akron 323 51 ECU 620 51 Notre Dame 940
52 UTEP -104 52 Texas Tech 65 52 Oklahoma State 321 52 Ohio State 602 52 Cincinnati 938
53 Tennessee -106 53 Vanderbilt 63 53 Wake Forest 309 53 Cincinnati 594 53 Navy 922
54 Arkansas -110 54 Oklahoma State 53 54 Marshall 305 54 Temple 591 54 Kentucky 918
55 NC State -110 55 Wake Forest 45 55 Ohio 299 55 Eastern Michigan 590 55 Louisville 917
56 Washington -111 56 NC State 35 56 Miami (OH) 289 56 Oklahoma State 590 56 Western Michigan 914
57 Tulsa -111 57 Nevada 34 57 Texas Tech 286 57 Kentucky 589 57 ECU 879
58 Oklahoma State -116 58 Rutgers 28 58 San Jose State 283 58 Louisville 585 58 Indiana 873
59 Wake Forest -118 59 North Carolina 27 59 NC State 281 59 Notre Dame 583 59 San Diego State 869
60 New Mexico State -119 60 UTEP 25 60 North Carolina 277 60 Maryland 581 60 Oklahoma State 858
61 North Carolina -123 61 Western Kentucky 24 61 Duke 271 61 Wake Forest 572 61 Northern Illinois 851
62 Army -125 62 Duke 22 62 Virginia 268 62 Western Michigan 561 62 Temple 846
63 Arkansas State -126 63 Arizona 21 63 Ball State 263 63 Pittsburgh 550 63 Pittsburgh 845
64 Duke -127 64 New Mexico State 12 64 Bowling Green 263 64 Indiana 542 64 Michigan 841
65 Middle Tennessee -135 65 Virginia 7 65 Kentucky 260 65 UNLV 541 65 Wake Forest 836
66 Boston College -147 66 Army 6 66 Ohio State 259 66 West Virginia 535 66 Purdue 834
67 Connecticut -147 67 Hawaii 0 67 Virginia Tech 256 67 Northern Illinois 535 67 Maryland 832
68 New Mexico -147 68 New Mexico -8 68 Toledo 256 68 Virginia Tech 534 68 West Virginia 828
69 Virginia -154 69 Penn State -22 69 Pittsburgh 255 69 UCLA 532 69 Virginia Tech 812
70 Vanderbilt -165 70 Virginia Tech -22 70 UTEP 253 70 USC 532 70 Central Michigan 805
71 Oregon State -168 71 Kent State -28 71 Louisville 253 71 Virginia 529 71 Illinois 804
72 Oregon -169 72 Akron -32 72 Cincinnati 251 72 NC State 526 72 Virginia 790
73 Penn State -178 73 Pittsburgh -40 73 Rutgers 244 73 North Carolina 526 73 Northwestern 790
74 Virginia Tech -200 74 Marshall -46 74 New Mexico State 243 74 Fresno State 526 74 Michigan State 781
75 Boise State -205 75 West Virginia -52 75 West Virginia 242 75 Duke 520 75 North Carolina 776
76 Syracuse -207 76 Ohio -58 76 Army 237 76 Michigan 508 76 NC State 772
77 BYU -215 77 Missouri -66 77 Penn State 235 77 Texas Tech 508 77 Duke 769
78 Utah -224 78 Buffalo -67 78 New Mexico 232 78 Purdue 506 78 Buffalo 766
79 Air Force -226 79 Kentucky -69 79 Eastern Michigan 231 79 Illinois 494 79 Missouri 763
80 Western Kentucky -233 80 Air Force -75 80 Arizona State 230 80 Penn State 492 80 Penn State 749
81 Pittsburgh -235 81 Connecticut -76 81 Notre Dame 226 81 Central Michigan 489 81 UNLV 743
82 Utah State -240 82 Louisville -79 82 Stanford 222 82 Buffalo 488 82 Texas Tech 729
83 Washington State -241 83 BYU -81 83 California 219 83 Northwestern 488 83 New Mexico 711
84 Missouri -243 84 Ohio State -84 84 Northern Illinois 218 84 Missouri 486 84 UTEP 710
85 Idaho -244 85 Miami (OH) -85 85 Nevada 215 85 UTEP 482 85 Fresno State 710
86 Buffalo -244 86 Kansas -90 86 Indiana 211 86 New Mexico State 475 86 New Mexico State 706
87 Kansas -245 87 Utah -91 87 Buffalo 211 87 New Mexico 472 87 Army 699
88 West Virginia -245 88 Cincinnati -93 88 Missouri 210 88 Army 468 88 UCLA 682
89 Minnesota -245 89 Boston College -96 89 Western Michigan 208 89 Michigan State 462 89 USC 682
90 Kansas State -250 90 Northern Illinois -98 90 Northwestern 186 90 Rutgers 460 90 Air Force 678
91 Nebraska -256 91 Syracuse -98 91 Illinois 184 91 San Jose State 452 91 Rutgers 676
92 Colorado -264 92 Kansas State -108 92 Arizona 181 92 Air Force 427 92 Kansas 674
93 Kent State -279 93 Ball State -111 93 Purdue 179 93 Kansas 419 93 Wisconsin 622
94 Colorado State -282 94 Bowling Green -113 94 Air Force 176 94 Nevada 396 94 BYU 621
95 Akron -287 95 Utah State -115 95 Michigan 175 95 Arizona State 394 95 San Jose State 621
96 Wyoming -288 96 Northwestern -116 96 Central Michigan 173 96 BYU 387 96 Iowa 619
97 Iowa State -290 97 Toledo -117 97 Kansas 164 97 Kansas State 376 97 Kansas State 618
98 Marshall -296 98 Indiana -120 98 BYU 153 98 Utah 376 98 Utah 609
99 Kentucky -298 99 Boise State -121 99 Michigan State 143 99 Wisconsin 364 99 Colorado State 606
100 Iowa -304 100 Washington -124 100 Utah 143 100 Iowa 363 100 Nevada 577
101 Wisconsin -308 101 Illinois -127 101 Kansas State 134 101 Stanford 362 101 Wyoming 566
102 Louisville -310 102 Eastern Michigan -128 102 Colorado State 112 102 Colorado State 359 102 Utah State 559
103 Northern Illinois -315 103 Notre Dame -131 103 Syracuse 110 103 California 356 103 Arizona State 557
104 Ohio -315 104 Nebraska -131 104 Utah State 109 104 Arizona 341 104 Nebraska 543
105 Northwestern -318 105 Colorado State -135 105 Iowa 107 105 Utah State 334 105 Iowa State 539
106 Ohio State -327 106 Colorado -142 106 Wisconsin 107 106 Wyoming 328 106 Syracuse 528
107 Cincinnati -336 107 Central Michigan -143 107 Connecticut 95 107 Syracuse 319 107 Colorado 524
108 Illinois -337 108 Western Michigan -145 108 Nebraska 93 108 Nebraska 318 108 Stanford 502
109 Indiana -351 109 Iowa -148 109 Wyoming 89 109 Iowa State 306 109 Arizona 502
110 Miami (OH) -359 110 Purdue -149 110 Colorado 80 110 Colorado 302 110 California 493
111 Central Michigan -359 111 Wyoming -150 111 Iowa State 74 111 Connecticut 265 111 Connecticut 436
112 Purdue -376 112 Wisconsin -151 112 Boise State 62 112 Boise State 246 112 Boise State 430
113 Ball State -386 113 Minnesota -153 113 Boston College 55 113 Minnesota 231 113 Minnesota 424
114 Eastern Michigan -387 114 Iowa State -158 114 Minnesota 39 114 Boston College 205 114 Boston College 356
115 Notre Dame -388 115 Michigan -158 115 Hawaii 0 115 Idaho 119 115 Idaho 273
116 Bowling Green -389 116 Oregon -168 116 Idaho -35 116 Washington 50 116 Washington State 170
117 Toledo -390 117 Oregon State -171 117 Washington -37 117 Washington State 42 117 Washington 138
118 Michigan -391 118 Michigan State -175 118 Oregon -67 118 Oregon 35 118 Oregon 136
119 Michigan State -394 119 Idaho -190 119 Oregon State -73 119 Oregon State 25 119 Oregon State 123
120 Western Michigan -398 120 Washington State -213 120 Washington State -86 120 Hawaii 0 120 Hawaii 0

Teams Sorted Alphabetically

School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00   School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00   School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00
Air Force 79 80 94 92 90   Kansas 87 86 97 93 92   Purdue 112 110 93 78 66
Akron 95 72 51 40 36   Kansas State 90 92 101 97 97   Rice 8 13 7 5 5
Alabama 32 28 27 24 20   Kent State 93 71 50 41 37   Rutgers 50 58 73 90 91
Arizona 42 63 92 104 109   Kentucky 99 79 65 57 54   San Diego State 9 22 29 39 59
Arizona State 38 51 80 95 103   Louisiana Tech 28 24 16 7 6   San Jose State 33 41 58 91 95
Arkansas 54 50 44 44 48   Louisiana-Lafayette 23 18 12 12 12   SMU 13 5 1 1 1
Arkansas State 63 39 35 31 22   Louisiana-Monroe 29 25 19 10 7   South Carolina 27 29 32 35 46
Army 62 66 76 88 87   Louisville 102 82 71 58 55   South Florida 2 3 8 19 28
Auburn 22 19 21 17 15   LSU 24 23 24 20 18   Southern Miss 26 20 15 9 8
Ball State 113 93 63 49 41   Marshall 98 74 54 46 42   Stanford 36 46 82 101 108
Baylor 16 14 17 18 19   Maryland 48 49 49 60 67   Syracuse 76 91 103 107 106
Boise State 75 99 112 112 112   Memphis 51 34 30 25 16   TCU 15 8 3 2 2
Boston College 66 89 113 114 114   Miami 5 6 23 30 45   Temple 49 48 48 54 62
Bowling Green 116 94 64 48 39   Miami (OH) 110 85 56 43 35   Tennessee 53 45 38 38 44
Buffalo 86 78 87 82 78   Michigan 118 115 95 76 64   Texas 17 21 25 28 32
BYU 77 83 98 96 94   Michigan State 119 118 99 89 74   Texas A&M 14 10 13 15 17
California 34 47 83 103 110   Middle Tennessee 65 40 34 29 21   Texas Tech 44 52 57 77 82
Central Michigan 111 107 96 81 70   Minnesota 89 113 114 113 113   Toledo 117 97 68 50 43
Cincinnati 107 88 72 53 52   Mississippi State 39 33 28 27 23   Troy 21 16 10 6 10
Clemson 35 32 31 33 34   Missouri 84 77 88 84 79   Tulane 20 15 11 11 11
Colorado 92 106 110 110 107   Navy 47 42 43 47 53   Tulsa 57 44 36 37 38
Colorado State 94 105 102 102 99   NC State 55 56 59 72 76   UAB 31 27 22 13 9
Connecticut 67 81 107 111 111   Nebraska 91 104 108 108 104   UCF 3 1 2 8 13
Duke 64 62 61 75 77   Nevada 43 57 85 94 100   UCLA 10 30 40 69 88
Eastern Michigan 114 102 79 55 47   New Mexico 68 68 78 87 83   UNLV 37 37 47 65 81
ECU 45 43 45 51 57   New Mexico State 60 64 74 86 86   USC 11 31 41 70 89
FIU 4 4 9 21 30   North Carolina 61 59 60 73 75   Utah 78 87 100 98 98
Florida 6 7 14 22 29   North Texas 18 9 4 3 3   Utah State 82 95 104 105 102
Florida Atlantic 1 2 5 16 24   Northern Illinois 103 90 84 67 61   UTEP 52 60 70 85 84
Florida State 12 11 20 23 25   Northwestern 105 96 90 83 73   Vanderbilt 70 53 39 36 33
Fresno State 30 36 46 74 85   Notre Dame 115 103 81 59 51   Virginia 69 65 62 71 72
Georgia 25 26 26 26 26   Ohio 104 76 55 45 40   Virginia Tech 74 70 67 68 69
Georgia Tech 19 17 18 14 14   Ohio State 106 84 66 52 49   Wake Forest 59 55 53 61 65
Hawaii 40 67 115 120 120   Oklahoma 41 38 37 42 50   Washington 56 100 117 116 117
Houston 7 12 6 4 4   Oklahoma State 58 54 52 56 60   Washington State 83 120 120 117 116
Idaho 85 119 116 115 115   Ole Miss 46 35 33 32 27   West Virginia 88 75 75 66 68
Illinois 108 101 91 79 71   Oregon 72 116 118 118 118   Western Kentucky 80 61 42 34 31
Indiana 109 98 86 64 58   Oregon State 71 117 119 119 119   Western Michigan 120 108 89 62 56
Iowa 100 109 105 100 96   Penn State 73 69 77 80 80   Wisconsin 101 112 106 99 93
Iowa State 97 114 111 109 105   Pittsburgh 81 73 69 63 63   Wyoming 96 111 109 106 101

Added 11/19/2009   Revised 12/02/2009  

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Tom Brennan, © 2009