Normalized Probabilities Case 3, Sub-analysis 1: 2006 - 2009 Rivals 250 Lists as Population Source, Scaling Competition by 10-Year Winning Percentage

Just as in the "normal" Case 3-2, this study scales schools by their winning percentage over the past ten years. It's slightly different in that in order to be more accurate I actually broke the recruits down by year and used the 10-year winning percentage that the recruits would have experienced (i.e. the 2006 Rivals class follows the 1997-2006 winning percentage, etc.). Given that it follows the normalized probability model, the results are somewhat different than the effective population Case 3-2. As discussed in the methods section, the maps are not very interesting, it is the tables rather that have the real interesting data hence they are shown immediately below with the maps below them.

The population source--the Rivals 250 lists--makes this particularly interesting because we know where these recruits actually chose to enroll and we can assume that every program wanted them. Therefore the numbers calculated--which represent how many of these Rivals 250 recruits a given school should have attracted given the only two criteria are geography and conference affiliation--can be compared to what actually happened.

The problem with this case (and which is addressed in the next), is that I haven't scaled down the non-Big 6 teams, which the previous case makes clear is a good assumption. As a result the errors here aren't much better than in Case 3-1; in fact they're worse.

As a result, I'm not going to spend too much time looking at the results because the lack of taking into account conferences really skews the results (hence no under/overperformers section). But they are here for perusal. I should note that as in the normalized population Case 3-2, the "scale factor" for winning percentage is really more of a dilution factor; that is winning percentage has the greatest effect on recruiting when the dilution factor is zero. Also, I've excluded years in which certain schools weren't competing in I-A (this ends up giving Western Kentucky no years to draw from so I let them stay at zero winning percentage).

A note about the images. The circles indicate the number of recruits and location of the 120 schools. I've tried to make it easier to distinguish good red and bad red here--the reds should indicate the best and the worst bottom out in the orange end of the spectrum (with the possible exception of Western Kentucky which still looks red to me).

Table I - Actual vs. Modeled Number of Recruits, Teams Sorted Alphabetically

College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual
Air Force 6.28 5.70 5.59 5.51 5.46 0.00 Kansas 5.89 6.64 6.79 6.89 6.95 0.93 Purdue 9.53 8.59 8.40 8.27 8.20 0.00
Akron 7.51 8.00 8.10 8.16 8.20 0.00 Kansas State 8.80 7.34 7.04 6.85 6.73 1.86 Rice 7.01 8.17 8.40 8.56 8.65 0.00
Alabama 11.66 10.85 10.69 10.58 10.52 39.06 Kent State 4.49 6.96 7.45 7.78 7.98 0.00 Rutgers 4.90 6.32 6.60 6.79 6.90 6.51
Arizona 4.96 5.47 5.58 5.65 5.69 9.30 Kentucky 7.14 8.49 8.76 8.94 9.05 1.86 San Diego State 5.97 7.16 7.40 7.56 7.66 0.00
Arizona State 6.80 6.40 6.32 6.27 6.24 10.23 Louisiana Tech 9.30 9.47 9.50 9.53 9.54 0.00 San Jose State 4.04 5.09 5.30 5.44 5.53 0.00
Arkansas 9.63 8.80 8.64 8.53 8.46 9.30 Louisiana-Lafayette 5.31 7.92 8.45 8.80 9.00 0.00 SMU 5.90 8.11 8.55 8.85 9.02 0.00
Arkansas State 6.16 8.12 8.51 8.78 8.93 0.00 Louisiana-Monroe 6.23 8.51 8.97 9.27 9.45 0.00 South Carolina 9.17 9.81 9.93 10.02 10.07 17.67
Army 2.88 5.24 5.71 6.02 6.20 0.00 Louisville 12.17 10.07 9.65 9.38 9.21 2.79 South Florida 12.41 10.87 10.56 10.35 10.23 2.79
Auburn 14.14 11.93 11.48 11.19 11.01 23.25 LSU 12.96 10.65 10.19 9.88 9.69 45.57 Southern Miss 12.35 10.75 10.43 10.21 10.08 0.93
Ball State 5.71 7.53 7.89 8.13 8.28 0.00 Marshall 12.14 10.07 9.66 9.38 9.22 0.00 Stanford 4.53 5.18 5.32 5.41 5.46 6.51
Baylor 4.37 7.24 7.82 8.20 8.43 1.86 Maryland 9.25 8.71 8.60 8.53 8.49 9.30 Syracuse 5.83 5.95 5.97 5.99 5.99 0.00
Boise State 5.99 4.64 4.37 4.19 4.08 0.00 Memphis 8.21 9.09 9.27 9.39 9.46 0.00 TCU 11.94 9.91 9.51 9.24 9.08 1.86
Boston College 6.11 5.21 5.03 4.91 4.84 6.51 Miami 13.73 10.68 10.07 9.65 9.41 33.48 Temple 3.16 6.06 6.64 7.03 7.25 0.00
Bowling Green 8.80 8.32 8.22 8.16 8.12 0.00 Miami (OH) 10.96 9.51 9.21 9.02 8.91 0.00 Tennessee 14.55 11.49 10.87 10.46 10.22 20.46
Buffalo 1.99 5.08 5.69 6.10 6.34 0.00 Michigan 11.44 8.88 8.37 8.03 7.83 38.13 Texas 12.39 9.42 8.82 8.42 8.19 48.36
BYU 5.91 5.31 5.19 5.11 5.07 0.93 Michigan State 7.45 7.31 7.29 7.27 7.26 6.51 Texas A&M 10.14 9.20 9.01 8.88 8.81 9.30
California 5.20 5.34 5.37 5.39 5.40 14.88 Middle Tennessee 8.64 9.44 9.60 9.71 9.77 0.00 Texas Tech 7.89 6.91 6.71 6.58 6.50 3.72
Central Michigan 5.18 6.15 6.35 6.48 6.56 0.00 Minnesota 5.17 5.08 5.06 5.05 5.04 3.72 Toledo 10.58 8.82 8.47 8.24 8.10 0.00
Cincinnati 8.61 8.82 8.86 8.89 8.90 0.93 Mississippi State 8.59 9.61 9.81 9.95 10.03 10.23 Troy 10.73 10.63 10.61 10.59 10.59 0.00
Clemson 12.00 10.94 10.73 10.59 10.51 26.04 Missouri 7.69 7.67 7.66 7.66 7.66 2.79 Tulane 8.42 9.09 9.23 9.32 9.37 0.00
Colorado 5.41 5.24 5.21 5.19 5.17 10.23 Navy 7.33 7.95 8.08 8.16 8.21 0.00 Tulsa 6.06 7.35 7.61 7.78 7.88 0.93
Colorado State 5.79 5.26 5.16 5.08 5.04 0.00 NC State 9.93 9.34 9.22 9.14 9.10 3.72 UAB 9.44 10.22 10.37 10.48 10.54 0.00
Connecticut 5.13 5.30 5.34 5.36 5.37 0.00 Nebraska 8.50 6.85 6.52 6.30 6.17 7.44 UCF 9.46 9.90 9.99 10.05 10.08 0.93
Duke 2.81 7.03 7.87 8.44 8.77 2.79 Nevada 4.49 4.89 4.97 5.02 5.06 0.00 UCLA 10.04 9.10 8.91 8.78 8.71 27.90
Eastern Michigan 4.27 6.51 6.96 7.26 7.44 0.00 New Mexico 5.60 5.62 5.62 5.62 5.63 0.00 UNLV 3.79 5.63 6.00 6.25 6.40 0.00
ECU 7.83 8.25 8.33 8.39 8.42 0.00 New Mexico State 3.68 4.93 5.18 5.35 5.45 0.00 USC 12.28 9.85 9.36 9.03 8.84 53.01
FIU 4.70 7.69 8.30 8.70 8.94 0.93 North Carolina 8.07 8.82 8.97 9.07 9.13 16.74 Utah 6.38 5.40 5.20 5.07 4.99 0.93
Florida 14.90 11.81 11.18 10.76 10.51 52.08 North Texas 6.73 8.18 8.47 8.67 8.78 0.00 Utah State 2.75 3.95 4.20 4.36 4.45 0.00
Florida Atlantic 8.82 9.22 9.30 9.35 9.38 0.00 Northern Illinois 7.31 7.22 7.21 7.20 7.19 0.00 UTEP 4.30 5.11 5.27 5.38 5.45 0.00
Florida State 15.53 12.19 11.51 11.06 10.80 35.34 Northwestern 6.26 6.99 7.14 7.23 7.29 0.93 Vanderbilt 5.23 8.18 8.77 9.17 9.40 0.00
Fresno State 7.73 6.89 6.72 6.61 6.54 0.00 Notre Dame 9.14 8.17 7.98 7.85 7.77 39.99 Virginia 10.33 9.31 9.10 8.97 8.89 7.44
Georgia 16.02 12.49 11.77 11.30 11.02 39.99 Ohio 7.18 8.26 8.48 8.63 8.71 0.00 Virginia Tech 14.09 10.83 10.18 9.75 9.49 11.16
Georgia Tech 13.59 11.83 11.48 11.24 11.10 7.44 Ohio State 13.42 10.26 9.63 9.21 8.96 39.99 Wake Forest 8.57 9.20 9.33 9.41 9.46 0.00
Hawaii 1.96 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.84 0.00 Oklahoma 11.71 9.17 8.66 8.33 8.13 32.55 Washington 3.21 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.26 6.51
Houston 7.08 8.19 8.42 8.57 8.66 0.00 Oklahoma State 7.55 7.63 7.64 7.65 7.66 11.16 Washington State 3.33 3.28 3.26 3.26 3.25 0.00
Idaho 2.20 2.89 3.03 3.13 3.18 0.00 Ole Miss 10.25 9.96 9.91 9.87 9.85 9.30 West Virginia 10.86 9.36 9.06 8.86 8.74 4.65
Illinois 5.93 7.32 7.59 7.78 7.89 13.02 Oregon 4.77 3.96 3.80 3.69 3.62 12.09 Western Kentucky 0.00 6.24 7.49 8.33 8.82 0.00
Indiana 5.59 7.61 8.02 8.29 8.45 0.00 Oregon State 3.94 3.64 3.58 3.54 3.51 2.79 Western Michigan 7.41 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.43 0.93
Iowa 7.09 6.82 6.77 6.73 6.71 6.51 Penn State 9.52 8.37 8.15 8.00 7.91 25.11 Wisconsin 8.99 7.29 6.95 6.73 6.60 6.51
Iowa State 5.28 5.85 5.96 6.04 6.08 0.93 Pittsburgh 8.73 8.51 8.47 8.44 8.42 14.88 Wyoming 3.89 4.43 4.54 4.61 4.66 0.00
Total Deviation from Actual 959.55 1033.76 1050.91 1062.61 1069.50


Table II - Recruiting Ranking, Actual vs. Modeled, Teams Sorted Alphabetically

College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual College 0 1 2 4 8 Actual
Air Force 71 93 97 98 99 68 Kansas 82 84 82 81 81 61 Purdue 32 45 55 59 60 68
Akron 58 60 61 62 61 68 Kansas State 42 70 79 82 83 54 Rice 67 56 54 49 51 68
Alabama 20 9 8 8 7 8 Kent State 102 79 73 69 66 68 Rutgers 97 87 87 83 82 40
Arizona 96 96 98 96 96 29 Kentucky 64 48 42 37 33 55 San Diego State 78 76 75 74 73 68
Arizona State 68 86 90 90 91 26 Louisiana Tech 36 26 25 21 19 68 San Jose State 106 107 102 99 98 68
Arkansas 31 43 44 51 53 30 Louisiana-Lafayette 89 62 52 42 35 68 SMU 81 59 46 41 34 68
Arkansas State 74 58 47 44 38 68 Louisiana-Monroe 73 46 37 28 23 68 South Carolina 38 23 17 14 14 18
Army 114 103 94 94 92 68 Louisville 15 17 21 25 29 49 South Florida 11 8 10 11 10 52
Auburn 5 3 3 3 3 16 LSU 10 13 13 16 18 4 Southern Miss 13 11 11 12 12 63
Ball State 85 67 65 65 58 68 Marshall 16 18 20 24 28 68 Stanford 100 105 101 100 100 41
Baylor 103 74 67 61 55 53 Maryland 37 44 45 50 52 31 Syracuse 83 91 92 95 95 68
Boise State 77 112 113 114 114 68 Memphis 51 37 29 23 22 68 TCU 18 20 24 29 32 56
Boston College 75 104 110 111 111 37 Miami 7 12 15 20 24 11 Temple 113 90 86 80 79 68
Bowling Green 43 50 59 64 64 68 Miami (OH) 22 25 32 35 39 68 Tennessee 4 6 6 10 11 17
Buffalo 118 109 95 92 90 68 Michigan 21 39 56 66 70 9 Texas 12 28 40 54 62 3
BYU 80 99 106 106 106 57 Michigan State 59 72 76 76 78 39 Texas A&M 28 34 35 39 44 33
California 92 98 99 101 103 20 Middle Tennessee 45 27 23 19 17 68 Texas Tech 53 80 85 87 88 47
Central Michigan 93 89 89 88 86 68 Minnesota 94 108 109 109 109 45 Toledo 25 40 50 60 65 68
Cincinnati 46 42 39 38 40 58 Mississippi State 47 24 19 15 15 28 Troy 24 14 9 6 5 68
Clemson 17 7 7 7 9 14 Missouri 56 64 68 72 74 50 Tulane 50 38 30 27 27 68
Colorado 88 102 104 105 105 27 Navy 61 61 62 63 59 68 Tulsa 76 69 70 70 69 64
Colorado State 84 101 108 107 108 68 NC State 30 30 31 32 31 46 UAB 35 16 12 9 6 68
Connecticut 95 100 100 103 104 68 Nebraska 49 82 88 89 93 35 UCF 34 21 16 13 13 65
Duke 115 77 66 52 46 48 Nevada 101 111 111 110 107 68 UCLA 29 36 38 43 49 13
Eastern Michigan 105 85 80 77 75 68 New Mexico 86 95 96 97 97 68 UNLV 109 94 91 91 89 68
ECU 54 52 57 55 56 68 New Mexico State 110 110 107 104 101 68 USC 14 22 26 34 42 1
FIU 99 63 58 45 37 59 North Carolina 52 41 36 33 30 19 Utah 70 97 105 108 110 66
Florida 3 5 5 5 8 2 North Texas 69 54 49 46 45 68 Utah State 116 115 114 113 113 68
Florida Atlantic 41 32 28 26 26 68 Northern Illinois 62 75 77 79 80 68 UTEP 104 106 103 102 102 68
Florida State 2 2 2 4 4 10 Northwestern 72 78 78 78 77 62 Vanderbilt 91 55 41 31 25 68
Fresno State 55 81 84 86 87 68 Notre Dame 39 57 64 68 71 6 Virginia 26 31 33 36 41 36
Georgia 1 1 1 1 2 5 Ohio 63 51 48 47 48 68 Virginia Tech 6 10 14 18 20 25
Georgia Tech 8 4 4 2 1 34 Ohio State 9 15 22 30 36 7 Wake Forest 48 33 27 22 21 68
Hawaii 119 120 120 120 120 68 Oklahoma 19 35 43 57 63 12 Washington 112 118 118 118 117 42
Houston 66 53 53 48 50 68 Oklahoma State 57 65 69 73 72 24 Washington State 111 117 117 117 118 68
Idaho 117 119 119 119 119 68 Ole Miss 27 19 18 17 16 32 West Virginia 23 29 34 40 47 44
Illinois 79 71 71 71 68 22 Oregon 98 114 115 115 115 23 Western Kentucky 120 88 72 56 43 68
Indiana 87 66 63 58 54 68 Oregon State 107 116 116 116 116 51 Western Michigan 60 68 74 75 76 67
Iowa 65 83 83 84 84 38 Penn State 33 49 60 67 67 15 Wisconsin 40 73 81 85 85 43
Iowa State 90 92 93 93 94 60 Pittsburgh 44 47 51 53 57 21 Wyoming 108 113 112 112 112 68


Table III - Rankings for Each Scale Factor

Dilution Factor = 0.0 Dilution Factor = 1.0 Dilution Factor = 2.0 Dilution Factor = 4.0 Dilution Factor = 8.0
Rank College Recruits Rank College Recruits Rank College Recruits Rank College Recruits Rank College Recruits
1 Georgia 16.02 1 Georgia 12.49 1 Georgia 11.77 1 Georgia 11.30 1 Georgia Tech 11.10
2 Florida State 15.53 2 Florida State 12.19 2 Florida State 11.51 2 Georgia Tech 11.24 2 Georgia 11.02
3 Florida 14.90 3 Auburn 11.93 3 Auburn 11.48 3 Auburn 11.19 3 Auburn 11.01
4 Tennessee 14.55 4 Georgia Tech 11.83 4 Georgia Tech 11.48 4 Florida State 11.06 4 Florida State 10.80
5 Auburn 14.14 5 Florida 11.81 5 Florida 11.18 5 Florida 10.76 5 Troy 10.59
6 Virginia Tech 14.09 6 Tennessee 11.49 6 Tennessee 10.87 6 Troy 10.59 6 UAB 10.54
7 Miami 13.73 7 Clemson 10.94 7 Clemson 10.73 7 Clemson 10.59 7 Alabama 10.52
8 Georgia Tech 13.59 8 South Florida 10.87 8 Alabama 10.69 8 Alabama 10.58 8 Florida 10.51
9 Ohio State 13.42 9 Alabama 10.85 9 Troy 10.61 9 UAB 10.48 9 Clemson 10.51
10 LSU 12.96 10 Virginia Tech 10.83 10 South Florida 10.56 10 Tennessee 10.46 10 South Florida 10.23
11 South Florida 12.41 11 Southern Miss 10.75 11 Southern Miss 10.43 11 South Florida 10.35 11 Tennessee 10.22
12 Texas 12.39 12 Miami 10.68 12 UAB 10.37 12 Southern Miss 10.21 12 Southern Miss 10.08
13 Southern Miss 12.35 13 LSU 10.65 13 LSU 10.19 13 UCF 10.05 13 UCF 10.08
14 USC 12.28 14 Troy 10.63 14 Virginia Tech 10.18 14 South Carolina 10.02 14 South Carolina 10.07
15 Louisville 12.17 15 Ohio State 10.26 15 Miami 10.07 15 Mississippi State 9.95 15 Mississippi State 10.03
16 Marshall 12.14 16 UAB 10.22 16 UCF 9.99 16 LSU 9.88 16 Ole Miss 9.85
17 Clemson 12.00 17 Louisville 10.07 17 South Carolina 9.93 17 Ole Miss 9.87 17 Middle Tennessee 9.77
18 TCU 11.94 18 Marshall 10.07 18 Ole Miss 9.91 18 Virginia Tech 9.75 18 LSU 9.69
19 Oklahoma 11.71 19 Ole Miss 9.96 19 Mississippi State 9.81 19 Middle Tennessee 9.71 19 Louisiana Tech 9.54
20 Alabama 11.66 20 TCU 9.91 20 Marshall 9.66 20 Miami 9.65 20 Virginia Tech 9.49
21 Michigan 11.44 21 UCF 9.90 21 Louisville 9.65 21 Louisiana Tech 9.53 21 Wake Forest 9.46
22 Miami (OH) 10.96 22 USC 9.85 22 Ohio State 9.63 22 Wake Forest 9.41 22 Memphis 9.46
23 West Virginia 10.86 23 South Carolina 9.81 23 Middle Tennessee 9.60 23 Memphis 9.39 23 Louisiana-Monroe 9.45
24 Troy 10.73 24 Mississippi State 9.61 24 TCU 9.51 24 Marshall 9.38 24 Miami 9.41
25 Toledo 10.58 25 Miami (OH) 9.51 25 Louisiana Tech 9.50 25 Louisville 9.38 25 Vanderbilt 9.40
26 Virginia 10.33 26 Louisiana Tech 9.47 26 USC 9.36 26 Florida Atlantic 9.35 26 Florida Atlantic 9.38
27 Ole Miss 10.25 27 Middle Tennessee 9.44 27 Wake Forest 9.33 27 Tulane 9.32 27 Tulane 9.37
28 Texas A&M 10.14 28 Texas 9.42 28 Florida Atlantic 9.30 28 Louisiana-Monroe 9.27 28 Marshall 9.22
29 UCLA 10.04 29 West Virginia 9.36 29 Memphis 9.27 29 TCU 9.24 29 Louisville 9.21
30 NC State 9.93 30 NC State 9.34 30 Tulane 9.23 30 Ohio State 9.21 30 North Carolina 9.13
31 Arkansas 9.63 31 Virginia 9.31 31 NC State 9.22 31 Vanderbilt 9.17 31 NC State 9.10
32 Purdue 9.53 32 Florida Atlantic 9.22 32 Miami (OH) 9.21 32 NC State 9.14 32 TCU 9.08
33 Penn State 9.52 33 Wake Forest 9.20 33 Virginia 9.10 33 North Carolina 9.07 33 Kentucky 9.05
34 UCF 9.46 34 Texas A&M 9.20 34 West Virginia 9.06 34 USC 9.03 34 SMU 9.02
35 UAB 9.44 35 Oklahoma 9.17 35 Texas A&M 9.01 35 Miami (OH) 9.02 35 Louisiana-Lafayette 9.00
36 Louisiana Tech 9.30 36 UCLA 9.10 36 North Carolina 8.97 36 Virginia 8.97 36 Ohio State 8.96
37 Maryland 9.25 37 Memphis 9.09 37 Louisiana-Monroe 8.97 37 Kentucky 8.94 37 FIU 8.94
38 South Carolina 9.17 38 Tulane 9.09 38 UCLA 8.91 38 Cincinnati 8.89 38 Arkansas State 8.93
39 Notre Dame 9.14 39 Michigan 8.88 39 Cincinnati 8.86 39 Texas A&M 8.88 39 Miami (OH) 8.91
40 Wisconsin 8.99 40 Toledo 8.82 40 Texas 8.82 40 West Virginia 8.86 40 Cincinnati 8.90
41 Florida Atlantic 8.82 41 North Carolina 8.82 41 Vanderbilt 8.77 41 SMU 8.85 41 Virginia 8.89
42 Kansas State 8.80 42 Cincinnati 8.82 42 Kentucky 8.76 42 Louisiana-Lafayette 8.80 42 USC 8.84
43 Bowling Green 8.80 43 Arkansas 8.80 43 Oklahoma 8.66 43 UCLA 8.78 43 Western Kentucky 8.82
44 Pittsburgh 8.73 44 Maryland 8.71 44 Arkansas 8.64 44 Arkansas State 8.78 44 Texas A&M 8.81
45 Middle Tennessee 8.64 45 Purdue 8.59 45 Maryland 8.60 45 FIU 8.70 45 North Texas 8.78
46 Cincinnati 8.61 46 Louisiana-Monroe 8.51 46 SMU 8.55 46 North Texas 8.67 46 Duke 8.77
47 Mississippi State 8.59 47 Pittsburgh 8.51 47 Arkansas State 8.51 47 Ohio 8.63 47 West Virginia 8.74
48 Wake Forest 8.57 48 Kentucky 8.49 48 Ohio 8.48 48 Houston 8.57 48 Ohio 8.71
49 Nebraska 8.50 49 Penn State 8.37 49 North Texas 8.47 49 Rice 8.56 49 UCLA 8.71
50 Tulane 8.42 50 Bowling Green 8.32 50 Toledo 8.47 50 Maryland 8.53 50 Houston 8.66
51 Memphis 8.21 51 Ohio 8.26 51 Pittsburgh 8.47 51 Arkansas 8.53 51 Rice 8.65
52 North Carolina 8.07 52 ECU 8.25 52 Louisiana-Lafayette 8.45 52 Duke 8.44 52 Maryland 8.49
53 Texas Tech 7.89 53 Houston 8.19 53 Houston 8.42 53 Pittsburgh 8.44 53 Arkansas 8.46
54 ECU 7.83 54 North Texas 8.18 54 Rice 8.40 54 Texas 8.42 54 Indiana 8.45
55 Fresno State 7.73 55 Vanderbilt 8.18 55 Purdue 8.40 55 ECU 8.39 55 Baylor 8.43
56 Missouri 7.69 56 Rice 8.17 56 Michigan 8.37 56 Western Kentucky 8.33 56 ECU 8.42
57 Oklahoma State 7.55 57 Notre Dame 8.17 57 ECU 8.33 57 Oklahoma 8.33 57 Pittsburgh 8.42
58 Akron 7.51 58 Arkansas State 8.12 58 FIU 8.30 58 Indiana 8.29 58 Ball State 8.28
59 Michigan State 7.45 59 SMU 8.11 59 Bowling Green 8.22 59 Purdue 8.27 59 Navy 8.21
60 Western Michigan 7.41 60 Akron 8.00 60 Penn State 8.15 60 Toledo 8.24 60 Purdue 8.20
61 Navy 7.33 61 Navy 7.95 61 Akron 8.10 61 Baylor 8.20 61 Akron 8.20
62 Northern Illinois 7.31 62 Louisiana-Lafayette 7.92 62 Navy 8.08 62 Akron 8.16 62 Texas 8.19
63 Ohio 7.18 63 FIU 7.69 63 Indiana 8.02 63 Navy 8.16 63 Oklahoma 8.13
64 Kentucky 7.14 64 Missouri 7.67 64 Notre Dame 7.98 64 Bowling Green 8.16 64 Bowling Green 8.12
65 Iowa 7.09 65 Oklahoma State 7.63 65 Ball State 7.89 65 Ball State 8.13 65 Toledo 8.10
66 Houston 7.08 66 Indiana 7.61 66 Duke 7.87 66 Michigan 8.03 66 Kent State 7.98
67 Rice 7.01 67 Ball State 7.53 67 Baylor 7.82 67 Penn State 8.00 67 Penn State 7.91
68 Arizona State 6.80 68 Western Michigan 7.42 68 Missouri 7.66 68 Notre Dame 7.85 68 Illinois 7.89
69 North Texas 6.73 69 Tulsa 7.35 69 Oklahoma State 7.64 69 Kent State 7.78 69 Tulsa 7.88
70 Utah 6.38 70 Kansas State 7.34 70 Tulsa 7.61 70 Tulsa 7.78 70 Michigan 7.83
71 Air Force 6.28 71 Illinois 7.32 71 Illinois 7.59 71 Illinois 7.78 71 Notre Dame 7.77
72 Northwestern 6.26 72 Michigan State 7.31 72 Western Kentucky 7.49 72 Missouri 7.66 72 Oklahoma State 7.66
73 Louisiana-Monroe 6.23 73 Wisconsin 7.29 73 Kent State 7.45 73 Oklahoma State 7.65 73 San Diego State 7.66
74 Arkansas State 6.16 74 Baylor 7.24 74 Western Michigan 7.42 74 San Diego State 7.56 74 Missouri 7.66
75 Boston College 6.11 75 Northern Illinois 7.22 75 San Diego State 7.40 75 Western Michigan 7.42 75 Eastern Michigan 7.44
76 Tulsa 6.06 76 San Diego State 7.16 76 Michigan State 7.29 76 Michigan State 7.27 76 Western Michigan 7.43
77 Boise State 5.99 77 Duke 7.03 77 Northern Illinois 7.21 77 Eastern Michigan 7.26 77 Northwestern 7.29
78 San Diego State 5.97 78 Northwestern 6.99 78 Northwestern 7.14 78 Northwestern 7.23 78 Michigan State 7.26
79 Illinois 5.93 79 Kent State 6.96 79 Kansas State 7.04 79 Northern Illinois 7.20 79 Temple 7.25
80 BYU 5.91 80 Texas Tech 6.91 80 Eastern Michigan 6.96 80 Temple 7.03 80 Northern Illinois 7.19
81 SMU 5.90 81 Fresno State 6.89 81 Wisconsin 6.95 81 Kansas 6.89 81 Kansas 6.95
82 Kansas 5.89 82 Nebraska 6.85 82 Kansas 6.79 82 Kansas State 6.85 82 Rutgers 6.90
83 Syracuse 5.83 83 Iowa 6.82 83 Iowa 6.77 83 Rutgers 6.79 83 Kansas State 6.73
84 Colorado State 5.79 84 Kansas 6.64 84 Fresno State 6.72 84 Iowa 6.73 84 Iowa 6.71
85 Ball State 5.71 85 Eastern Michigan 6.51 85 Texas Tech 6.71 85 Wisconsin 6.73 85 Wisconsin 6.60
86 New Mexico 5.60 86 Arizona State 6.40 86 Temple 6.64 86 Fresno State 6.61 86 Central Michigan 6.56
87 Indiana 5.59 87 Rutgers 6.32 87 Rutgers 6.60 87 Texas Tech 6.58 87 Fresno State 6.54
88 Colorado 5.41 88 Western Kentucky 6.24 88 Nebraska 6.52 88 Central Michigan 6.48 88 Texas Tech 6.50
89 Louisiana-Lafayette 5.31 89 Central Michigan 6.15 89 Central Michigan 6.35 89 Nebraska 6.30 89 UNLV 6.40
90 Iowa State 5.28 90 Temple 6.06 90 Arizona State 6.32 90 Arizona State 6.27 90 Buffalo 6.34
91 Vanderbilt 5.23 91 Syracuse 5.95 91 UNLV 6.00 91 UNLV 6.25 91 Arizona State 6.24
92 California 5.20 92 Iowa State 5.85 92 Syracuse 5.97 92 Buffalo 6.10 92 Army 6.20
93 Central Michigan 5.18 93 Air Force 5.70 93 Iowa State 5.96 93 Iowa State 6.04 93 Nebraska 6.17
94 Minnesota 5.17 94 UNLV 5.63 94 Army 5.71 94 Army 6.02 94 Iowa State 6.08
95 Connecticut 5.13 95 New Mexico 5.62 95 Buffalo 5.69 95 Syracuse 5.99 95 Syracuse 5.99
96 Arizona 4.96 96 Arizona 5.47 96 New Mexico 5.62 96 Arizona 5.65 96 Arizona 5.69
97 Rutgers 4.90 97 Utah 5.40 97 Air Force 5.59 97 New Mexico 5.62 97 New Mexico 5.63
98 Oregon 4.77 98 California 5.34 98 Arizona 5.58 98 Air Force 5.51 98 San Jose State 5.53
99 FIU 4.70 99 BYU 5.31 99 California 5.37 99 San Jose State 5.44 99 Air Force 5.46
100 Stanford 4.53 100 Connecticut 5.30 100 Connecticut 5.34 100 Stanford 5.41 100 Stanford 5.46
101 Nevada 4.49 101 Colorado State 5.26 101 Stanford 5.32 101 California 5.39 101 New Mexico State 5.45
102 Kent State 4.49 102 Colorado 5.24 102 San Jose State 5.30 102 UTEP 5.38 102 UTEP 5.45
103 Baylor 4.37 103 Army 5.24 103 UTEP 5.27 103 Connecticut 5.36 103 California 5.40
104 UTEP 4.30 104 Boston College 5.21 104 Colorado 5.21 104 New Mexico State 5.35 104 Connecticut 5.37
105 Eastern Michigan 4.27 105 Stanford 5.18 105 Utah 5.20 105 Colorado 5.19 105 Colorado 5.17
106 San Jose State 4.04 106 UTEP 5.11 106 BYU 5.19 106 BYU 5.11 106 BYU 5.07
107 Oregon State 3.94 107 San Jose State 5.09 107 New Mexico State 5.18 107 Colorado State 5.08 107 Nevada 5.06
108 Wyoming 3.89 108 Minnesota 5.08 108 Colorado State 5.16 108 Utah 5.07 108 Colorado State 5.04
109 UNLV 3.79 109 Buffalo 5.08 109 Minnesota 5.06 109 Minnesota 5.05 109 Minnesota 5.04
110 New Mexico State 3.68 110 New Mexico State 4.93 110 Boston College 5.03 110 Nevada 5.02 110 Utah 4.99
111 Washington State 3.33 111 Nevada 4.89 111 Nevada 4.97 111 Boston College 4.91 111 Boston College 4.84
112 Washington 3.21 112 Boise State 4.64 112 Wyoming 4.54 112 Wyoming 4.61 112 Wyoming 4.66
113 Temple 3.16 113 Wyoming 4.43 113 Boise State 4.37 113 Utah State 4.36 113 Utah State 4.45
114 Army 2.88 114 Oregon 3.96 114 Utah State 4.20 114 Boise State 4.19 114 Boise State 4.08
115 Duke 2.81 115 Utah State 3.95 115 Oregon 3.80 115 Oregon 3.69 115 Oregon 3.62
116 Utah State 2.75 116 Oregon State 3.64 116 Oregon State 3.58 116 Oregon State 3.54 116 Oregon State 3.51
117 Idaho 2.20 117 Washington State 3.28 117 Washington State 3.26 117 Washington State 3.26 117 Washington 3.26
118 Buffalo 1.99 118 Washington 3.24 118 Washington 3.25 118 Washington 3.26 118 Washington State 3.25
119 Hawaii 1.96 119 Idaho 2.89 119 Idaho 3.03 119 Idaho 3.13 119 Idaho 3.18
120 Western Kentucky 0.00 120 Hawaii 1.88 120 Hawaii 1.86 120 Hawaii 1.85 120 Hawaii 1.84


Figure 1 - Dilution factor = 0.0.

Figure 2 - Dilution factor = 1.0.

Figure 3 - Dilution factor = 2.0.

Figure 4 - Dilution factor = 4.0.

Figure 5 - Dilution factor = 8.0.

Figure 9 - Composite of, from left to right, Dilution Factor = 8.0, Dilution factor = 4.0 (top row); Dilution factor = 1.0, Dilution factor = 0.0 (bottom row).


Added 12/21/2009  

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Tom Brennan, © 2009