Case 1: 2000 US Census as Population Source

In this analysis, the population sample was the ~3000 counties located and sized by the 2000 census. Using the decay curve built from the analysis of current players (see Calculating Populations for details) we see in the first figure, before colleges are used as negative population sources, that the New Jersey - Pennsylvania - Ohio stretch, going south to northern Virginia is a particulary fertile recruiting ground. Once we add-in the competitive effect of other colleges we're left with a very barren patch in the southeast extending to the bottom of the Mid-Atlantic region. The New York to Boston wing, however, dominates the map. The Top 10 sites are in the Connecticut - Maine with a host of offshore sites in the mix. The northeast really dominates this analysis due to its high population density and low number of I-A football progams (only UConn and BC are located in New England). Surprisingly University of Washington in Seattle was actually at the bottom of the list before subtractions, even behind Washington State in more sparsely-populated Pullman, WA.

The other unsurprising result in this analysis is that people in SEC country, particularly in Alabama and Mississippi, disproportionately support football. White areas on the map indicate that the ratio of football teams to people is high. Despite the huge density of teams in Michigan-Ohio-Indiana, these areas are propped up to an extent by the northeast and Chicago-area population centers and are not nearly as white.

Figure 1 - Before college subtraction. Blue squares indicate location of colleges. White = low effective popuation, Red = high effective population. Numbers indicate 10 highest effective population locations (constrained such that each location is at least 30 miles from any other in the top ten).

Figure 2 - After college subtraction. Blue squares indicate location of colleges. White = low effective popuation, Red = high effective population. Numbers indicate the 10 highest effective population locations (constrained such that each location is at least 30 miles from any other in the top ten).

Pre-Subtraction Post-Subtraction
Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop.
1 Temple 69337641 1 Rutgers 19402930
2 Ohio State 69136255 2 Army 18963163
3 Rutgers 69124133 3 Connecticut 17153471
4 Maryland 68767178 4 Temple 17117125
5 Ohio 68679820 5 Boston College 15258290
6 West Virginia 68539012 6 Syracuse 10996773
7 Miami University 68526348 7 Navy 10994912
8 Cincinnati 68518930 8 Maryland 9994523
9 Pittsburgh 68460442 9 Penn State 8796203
10 Navy 68320860 10 UCLA 7001654
11 Akron 67977479 11 USC 7001654
12 Marshall 67962423 12 San Diego State 6616973
13 Ball State 67924010 13 Buffalo 6081337
14 Penn State 67797235 14 Fresno State 3548847
15 Kent State 67704703 15 San Jose State 3333633
16 Bowling Green 67504860 16 California 3286961
17 Kentucky 67213211 17 Stanford 3256973
18 Toledo 67021293 18 Virginia 3108737
19 Louisville 66558305 19 Pittsburgh 2445618
20 Virginia 66487188 20 UNLV 1560509
21 Indiana 66341160 21 West Virginia 1390744
22 Army 66080796 22 ECU 1181236
23 Purdue 66029478 23 Nevada 1003436
24 Virginia Tech 65946300 24 Washington 270157
25 Notre Dame 65626006 25 Hawaii 0
26 Eastern Michigan 65487737 26 Kent State -220887
27 Michigan 65329949 27 Arizona State -315127
28 Tennessee 64789168 28 Akron -696093
29 Western Michigan 64322504 29 Oregon State -922682
30 Western Kentucky 64129261 30 NC State -1008753
31 Wake Forest 63942926 31 Oregon -1019528
32 Northwestern 63658415 32 Central Michigan -1317858
33 Illinois 63554331 33 Duke -1392282
34 Michigan State 63293476 34 North Carolina -1610399
35 Middle Tennessee 62756719 35 Minnesota -1631015
36 Vanderbilt 62748692 36 Arizona -1783227
37 Clemson 62397615 37 Virginia Tech -2102586
38 North Carolina 61945619 38 Wisconsin -2150080
39 Duke 61918695 39 Northwestern -2222611
40 Northern Illinois 61226394 40 Wake Forest -2467359
41 NC State 61073253 41 Florida Atlantic -2479327
42 Georgia 60750416 42 Boise State -2648065
43 Georgia Tech 60567462 43 FIU -2741927
44 Buffalo 60295626 44 Michigan State -2746312
45 South Carolina 59046152 45 Miami -2754971
46 Central Michigan 58868580 46 Eastern Michigan -2847058
47 Syracuse 58788086 47 Northern Illinois -2888555
48 Connecticut 58013707 48 Michigan -2945032
49 ECU 57672408 49 South Carolina -2966280
50 UAB 57533002 50 UCF -3010314
51 Memphis 56134516 51 Washington State -3250768
52 Auburn 55923842 52 Idaho -3339277
53 Arkansas State 55778992 53 South Florida -3342105
54 Wisconsin 55708042 54 Western Michigan -3582145
55 Alabama 55636442 55 Toledo -3794605
56 Ole Miss 55407265 56 Ohio -3985587
57 Mississippi State 54535158 57 Notre Dame -4191610
58 Missouri 54480399 58 Bowling Green -4215694
59 Iowa 53641800 59 Florida -4332222
60 Troy 52627676 60 Ohio State -4624633
61 Boston College 51965434 61 BYU -4859366
62 Arkansas 50426870 62 Utah -4922373
63 Louisiana-Monroe 48619654 63 Utah State -4932719
64 Southern Miss 48479812 64 Marshall -5055363
65 Florida State 48374073 65 Iowa -5203363
66 Kansas 48289286 66 Clemson -5286433
67 Louisiana Tech 48180514 67 Iowa State -5560946
68 Iowa State 48149026 68 New Mexico -5855706
69 Tulsa 47347919 69 UTEP -5910055
70 Florida 46013385 70 Georgia -5935454
71 SMU 45121741 71 New Mexico State -5943744
72 Oklahoma State 45018141 72 Illinois -6082523
73 Kansas State 44914954 73 Purdue -6140336
74 LSU 44857818 74 Ball State -6595758
75 North Texas 44656593 75 Florida State -6724119
76 Oklahoma 44397808 76 Tennessee -6751319
77 Tulane 44086332 77 Georgia Tech -6972408
78 TCU 43921670 78 Air Force -7146404
79 Louisiana-Lafayette 43502902 79 Miami University -7183294
80 Nebraska 43200246 80 Wyoming -7264170
81 UCF 42780021 81 Cincinnati -7274798
82 Minnesota 42255563 82 Colorado -7430081
83 Baylor 42172756 83 Nebraska -7581948
84 South Florida 41683643 84 Colorado State -7606872
85 Texas A&M 41644841 85 Kentucky -7697902
86 Houston 41195405 86 Missouri -7766933
87 Rice 41195405 87 Texas Tech -7824991
88 Texas 38869348 88 Indiana -7879370
89 UCLA 36670797 89 Texas -7901477
90 USC 36670797 90 Louisville -8429070
91 Texas Tech 35098843 91 Houston -8446975
92 Florida Atlantic 35013915 92 Rice -8446975
93 San Diego State 33750646 93 Kansas -9074617
94 Air Force 33411288 94 Auburn -9129922
95 FIU 33409229 95 Kansas State -9280062
96 Miami 33205544 96 Texas A&M -9361016
97 Fresno State 32920509 97 Western Kentucky -9379909
98 UNLV 32480273 98 Troy -9521433
99 Colorado 32408727 99 Middle Tennessee -9798514
100 San Jose State 31920121 100 Baylor -9827189
101 Colorado State 31885845 101 Vanderbilt -9924061
102 Stanford 31572326 102 TCU -10210047
103 New Mexico 31525022 103 Tulane -10276660
104 California 31328017 104 SMU -10368122
105 Arizona State 31078083 105 North Texas -10516225
106 Wyoming 30334607 106 Louisiana-Lafayette -10554847
107 New Mexico State 29519587 107 Arkansas -10778282
108 Nevada 29444254 108 UAB -10815733
109 UTEP 29226109 109 Oklahoma -10824596
110 Arizona 29133332 110 Oklahoma State -10928703
111 BYU 29122277 111 Arkansas State -11018809
112 Utah 28756274 112 LSU -11124860
113 Utah State 27713469 113 Tulsa -11168151
114 Boise State 25039530 114 Southern Miss -11418377
115 Oregon 23190652 115 Alabama -11751966
116 Oregon State 22878115 116 Memphis -11863885
117 Washington State 21806018 117 Louisiana Tech -12160412
118 Idaho 21793353 118 Louisiana-Monroe -12373902
119 Washington 21508735 119 Ole Miss -12498601
120 Hawaii 0 120 Mississippi State -12578043

Added 11/10/2009  

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Tom Brennan, © 2009