Case 3, Sub-analysis 1: 2006 - 2009 Rivals 250 Lists as Population Source, Scaling Competition by Conference

Continuing from the Case 3 analysis, in this study I look scale the competitive effect of other schools by whether or not they are in Big 6 or "AQ" (auto-qualifier) conferences. With respect to the mathematics, I multiply the negative populations of schools that are not one of the Big 6 conferences by some factor less than 1 (e.g. 0.50, 0.75, et cetera).

The point of this is to recognize that higher profile programs are more successful in attracting recruits and therefore it is more difficult for another school nearby to attract recruits. One great example of where this scaling factor is expected to have a big impact is in the state of Ohio with its plethora of MAC schools (but only Ohio State and Cincinnati in Big 6 conferences). The scaling factor accounts for the fact that Ohio State rarely worries about losing recruits to Akron (or Toledo or Kent State or Miami Ohio...).

A couple of important notes before diving in. 1.) I did not count Notre Dame as a Big 6 conference. Or Boise State. Or Utah, etc. A flaw in this study, perhaps, but I plan on using other metrics to gauge a program's prestige in the future independent of conference affiliation. 2.) You'll notice that each college's effective population is higher than it the Case 2 base case. I made sure after applying a school's negative population effect to the entire country to add that population back to the school itself. Otherwise the ranking would be weighted towards small schools. Adding back the population to each school recognizes that schools aren't competing with themselves. This is not an issue (for ranking purposes) in the first Case 2 analysis because each school is decremented by the same amount.

The changes seen here as the competitive influence of non-AQ schools is scaled down are not as dramatic as those seen in the corresponding Case 2 sub-analysis. The dominant trend is the movement of the hot spots north out of Florida and into Georgia. Unlike when all recruits are considered this region does not really migrate west towards Texas. One neat effect is the ring made the shcools in eastern Texas that seen to form the western bound of the better recruiting grounds.

The losers are the usual suspects. The Pacific northwest corner drops to the bottom of the list making it all the more amazing to see Oregon and Oregon State playing for a trip to Rose Bowl tonite. There isn't all that much movement in the rankings as the scaling factor is decreased but it is interesting to see the USC-UCLA duo move to lower rankings as schools surrounded by smaller programs rise up the list.

All maps below are after the college subtraction step, to see the original map head back to the Case 3 homepage.

Figure 1 - Scale factor = 1.0. This is the same map at the end of the Case 3 base case scenario.

Figure 2 - Scale factor = 0.75. Hot spots creeping north out of Florida.

Figure 3 - Scale factor = 0.667.

Figure 4 - Scale factor = 0.50.

Figure 5 - Scale factor = 0.333.

Figure 6 - Scale factor = 0.25. Wow, Georgia domination!

Figure 7 - Scale factor = 0.0.


Scale Factor = 1 Scale Factor = 0.75 Scale Factor = 0.50 Scale Factor = 0.25 Scale Factor = 0.0
Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop. Rank School Effective Pop.
1 South Florida 79 1 UCF 87 1 UCF 104 1 UCF 120 1 Troy 139
2 UCF 78 2 South Florida 86 2 South Florida 100 2 Troy 118 2 UCF 136
3 Florida Atlantic 76 3 Florida Atlantic 83 3 Florida State 99 3 Florida State 116 3 UAB 134
4 Florida 74 4 Florida State 83 4 Florida 98 4 South Florida 114 4 Auburn 133
5 FIU 74 5 Florida 83 5 Florida Atlantic 97 5 Auburn 113 5 Florida State 133
6 Florida State 73 6 FIU 81 6 Troy 96 6 Florida 113 6 Georgia Tech 132
7 Miami 73 7 Miami 78 7 FIU 95 7 Georgia Tech 112 7 Southern Miss 132
8 Auburn 60 8 Troy 75 8 Auburn 93 8 Florida Atlantic 112 8 Florida 128
9 Troy 60 9 Auburn 73 9 Georgia Tech 92 9 UAB 110 9 South Florida 128
10 Georgia Tech 60 10 Georgia Tech 73 10 Miami 90 10 Southern Miss 109 10 Tulane 128
11 Georgia 56 11 Georgia 68 11 Georgia 87 11 FIU 108 11 Louisiana-Monroe 126
12 South Carolina 54 12 South Carolina 65 12 UAB 87 12 Georgia 107 12 Florida Atlantic 126
13 Tulane 50 13 Southern Miss 64 13 Southern Miss 87 13 Tulane 106 13 Georgia 126
14 Southern Miss 49 14 Tulane 64 14 Tulane 85 14 Louisiana-Lafayette 103 14 Louisiana Tech 125
15 Clemson 47 15 UAB 63 15 South Carolina 82 15 Louisiana-Monroe 102 15 Louisiana-Lafayette 124
16 UAB 47 16 Clemson 59 16 Louisiana-Lafayette 81 16 Alabama 102 16 Alabama 124
17 LSU 46 17 LSU 59 17 Alabama 81 17 Miami 102 17 FIU 122
18 Louisiana-Lafayette 45 18 Louisiana-Lafayette 59 18 LSU 79 18 Louisiana Tech 101 18 SMU 120
19 Alabama 44 19 Alabama 59 19 Clemson 79 19 South Carolina 100 19 LSU 120
20 Houston 42 20 Louisiana-Monroe 55 20 Louisiana-Monroe 79 20 LSU 99 20 Mississippi State 117
21 Rice 42 21 Louisiana Tech 54 21 Louisiana Tech 77 21 Clemson 98 21 Clemson 117
22 Louisiana-Monroe 38 22 SMU 53 22 SMU 75 22 SMU 97 22 South Carolina 117
23 SMU 37 23 Mississippi State 51 23 Mississippi State 73 23 Mississippi State 95 23 Houston 117
24 Texas A&M 37 24 Houston 50 24 Houston 72 24 Houston 94 24 Rice 117
25 Louisiana Tech 37 25 Rice 50 25 Rice 72 25 Rice 94 25 Miami 114
26 Mississippi State 36 26 Texas A&M 49 26 TCU 69 26 TCU 91 26 TCU 113
27 Baylor 33 27 TCU 48 27 North Texas 68 27 North Texas 90 27 North Texas 113
28 TCU 33 28 North Texas 46 28 Texas A&M 67 28 Ole Miss 88 28 Memphis 112
29 ECU 31 29 Baylor 45 29 Ole Miss 65 29 Memphis 87 29 Middle Tennessee 111
30 North Texas 31 30 Ole Miss 43 30 Baylor 64 30 Middle Tennessee 86 30 Ole Miss 110
31 Wake Forest 30 31 ECU 43 31 Memphis 63 31 Texas A&M 86 31 Texas A&M 104
32 NC State 30 32 Wake Forest 42 32 Tennessee 62 32 Tennessee 83 32 Tennessee 104
33 North Carolina 30 33 Tennessee 41 33 Middle Tennessee 61 33 Baylor 82 33 Arkansas State 104
34 Texas 29 34 North Carolina 40 34 ECU 61 34 Arkansas State 79 34 Baylor 101
35 Duke 29 35 NC State 40 35 Wake Forest 60 35 Wake Forest 79 35 Vanderbilt 99
36 Maryland 28 36 Navy 40 36 Navy 59 36 ECU 79 36 Western Kentucky 99
37 UCLA 28 37 Duke 40 37 North Carolina 58 37 Navy 78 37 Wake Forest 97
38 USC 28 38 Texas 39 38 NC State 57 38 Vanderbilt 76 38 Navy 97
39 Navy 28 39 Maryland 39 39 Duke 57 39 North Carolina 75 39 ECU 97
40 Ole Miss 28 40 Memphis 38 40 Maryland 56 40 NC State 75 40 Marshall 95
41 Tennessee 26 41 Middle Tennessee 37 41 Texas 56 41 Duke 74 41 Ohio 94
42 San Diego State 26 42 Virginia 35 42 Arkansas State 55 42 Western Kentucky 74 42 North Carolina 93
43 Virginia 23 43 Temple 34 43 Vanderbilt 53 43 Maryland 74 43 Akron 92
44 Temple 23 44 Virginia Tech 32 44 Virginia 53 44 Texas 73 44 Duke 92
45 Memphis 20 45 San Diego State 31 45 Virginia Tech 51 45 Virginia 71 45 Kent State 92
46 Virginia Tech 20 46 Arkansas State 31 46 Temple 51 46 Virginia Tech 71 46 NC State 92
47 Middle Tennessee 19 47 Vanderbilt 30 47 Western Kentucky 49 47 Marshall 71 47 Maryland 91
48 Rutgers 18 48 Rutgers 26 48 Marshall 46 48 Temple 69 48 Virginia Tech 90
49 Vanderbilt 14 49 Penn State 25 49 West Virginia 45 49 Ohio 69 49 Texas 89
50 Penn State 14 50 West Virginia 24 50 Pittsburgh 44 50 Akron 67 50 Virginia 89
51 Arkansas State 13 51 UCLA 24 51 Ohio 44 51 Kent State 67 51 Miami (OH) 89
52 Army 11 52 USC 24 52 San Diego State 43 52 West Virginia 65 52 Temple 87
53 West Virginia 11 53 Western Kentucky 24 53 Penn State 43 53 Pittsburgh 65 53 West Virginia 86
54 Pittsburgh 10 54 Pittsburgh 24 54 Kent State 43 54 Miami (OH) 63 54 Pittsburgh 86
55 Oklahoma 9 55 Arkansas 22 55 Akron 43 55 Arkansas 63 55 Kentucky 85
56 Arkansas 9 56 Marshall 22 56 Arkansas 42 56 Kentucky 62 56 Bowling Green 85
57 Western Kentucky 6 57 Oklahoma 21 57 Rutgers 42 57 Tulsa 62 57 Ohio State 85
58 Connecticut 5 58 Army 20 58 Tulsa 41 58 Ohio State 61 58 Toledo 84
59 Tulsa 5 59 Tulsa 19 59 Oklahoma 40 59 Penn State 61 59 Ball State 84
60 Marshall 4 60 Ohio 19 60 Kentucky 39 60 Cincinnati 59 60 Tulsa 84
61 Fresno State 3 61 Kent State 18 61 Ohio State 37 61 Bowling Green 59 61 Cincinnati 84
62 Boston College 2 62 Akron 18 62 Miami (OH) 37 62 Louisville 59 62 Arkansas 83
63 UNLV 2 63 Kentucky 16 63 Army 36 63 Oklahoma 59 63 Louisville 82
64 Arizona State 2 64 Oklahoma State 14 64 Louisville 36 64 Toledo 58 64 Eastern Michigan 80
65 Oklahoma State 2 65 Ohio State 13 65 Cincinnati 35 65 Ball State 58 65 Penn State 79
66 Syracuse 2 66 Louisville 12 66 UCLA 35 66 Rutgers 57 66 Oklahoma 78
67 Texas Tech 1 67 Buffalo 12 67 USC 35 67 San Diego State 55 67 Indiana 75
68 Ohio 1 68 Cincinnati 11 68 Bowling Green 33 68 Eastern Michigan 54 68 Notre Dame 74
69 Kent State 0 69 Miami (OH) 11 69 Oklahoma State 33 69 Army 53 69 Western Michigan 73
70 Kentucky 0 70 Connecticut 10 70 Toledo 32 70 Indiana 52 70 Rutgers 72
71 Hawaii 0 71 Texas Tech 10 71 Ball State 32 71 Oklahoma State 51 71 Michigan 72
72 Akron 0 72 UNLV 9 72 Buffalo 31 72 Buffalo 51 72 Oklahoma State 70
73 Arizona 0 73 Syracuse 9 73 Eastern Michigan 29 73 Notre Dame 49 73 Buffalo 70
74 Buffalo -1 74 Fresno State 9 74 Indiana 29 74 Michigan 48 74 Army 69
75 Louisville -4 75 Arizona State 7 75 Texas Tech 25 75 Western Michigan 48 75 Purdue 68
76 Ohio State -4 76 Bowling Green 6 76 Michigan 25 76 Purdue 45 76 San Diego State 67
77 San Jose State -4 77 Boston College 6 77 Missouri 24 77 UCLA 45 77 Illinois 66
78 Stanford -5 78 Toledo 6 78 Notre Dame 24 78 USC 45 78 Central Michigan 65
79 UTEP -5 79 Indiana 6 79 Syracuse 24 79 Illinois 44 79 Michigan State 65
80 California -5 80 Ball State 5 80 UNLV 24 80 Missouri 44 80 Northern Illinois 64
81 Cincinnati -6 81 Missouri 5 81 Western Michigan 23 81 Central Michigan 43 81 Missouri 63
82 New Mexico State -6 82 UTEP 4 82 Illinois 23 82 Michigan State 43 82 Northwestern 61
83 Missouri -7 83 Eastern Michigan 4 83 Purdue 23 83 Northern Illinois 42 83 Texas Tech 56
84 Miami (OH) -9 84 Arizona 4 84 Fresno State 22 84 Texas Tech 41 84 UCLA 56
85 Nevada -10 85 New Mexico State 3 85 Connecticut 22 85 Northwestern 39 85 USC 56
86 Indiana -10 86 Michigan 2 86 Central Michigan 21 86 Syracuse 39 86 Syracuse 53
87 New Mexico -11 87 Illinois 1 87 Michigan State 21 87 UNLV 38 87 UTEP 52
88 Washington -12 88 San Jose State 1 88 UTEP 20 88 UTEP 36 88 Kansas 52
89 Kansas -12 89 Hawaii 0 89 Northern Illinois 20 89 New Mexico State 35 89 UNLV 52
90 Bowling Green -13 90 Purdue 0 90 New Mexico State 19 90 Fresno State 35 90 New Mexico State 51
91 Toledo -13 91 New Mexico -1 91 Northwestern 18 91 Kansas 34 91 New Mexico 50
92 Illinois -14 92 Notre Dame -1 92 Arizona State 18 92 Connecticut 34 92 Fresno State 48
93 Ball State -14 93 Central Michigan -1 93 Boston College 16 93 New Mexico 33 93 Wisconsin 47
94 Eastern Michigan -14 94 Western Michigan -1 94 Kansas 16 94 Arizona State 30 94 Iowa 46
95 Michigan -15 95 Kansas -2 95 New Mexico 16 95 Kansas State 29 95 Kansas State 46
96 Kansas State -15 96 Michigan State -2 96 Arizona 15 96 Wisconsin 29 96 Connecticut 46
97 Central Michigan -16 97 Stanford -2 97 San Jose State 12 97 Iowa 28 97 Air Force 45
98 Oregon State -16 98 Northern Illinois -3 98 Kansas State 12 98 Air Force 27 98 Arizona State 41
99 Purdue -16 99 California -3 99 Iowa 11 99 Boston College 27 99 Iowa State 39
100 Minnesota -16 100 Northwestern -3 100 Wisconsin 11 100 Arizona 26 100 Nebraska 39
101 Oregon -17 101 Nevada -5 101 Air Force 10 101 San Jose State 24 101 Colorado State 38
102 Northwestern -17 102 Kansas State -5 102 Nevada 8 102 Iowa State 23 102 BYU 38
103 Michigan State -17 103 Iowa -7 103 Stanford 8 103 Nebraska 23 103 Boston College 38
104 Nebraska -17 104 Wisconsin -7 104 Nebraska 7 104 BYU 22 104 Arizona 38
105 Northern Illinois -18 105 Air Force -8 105 California 7 105 Colorado State 21 105 Utah 37
106 Iowa -18 106 Nebraska -9 106 Iowa State 7 106 Nevada 21 106 San Jose State 36
107 Air Force -18 107 Iowa State -10 107 BYU 5 107 Utah 20 107 Wyoming 35
108 Wisconsin -19 108 Minnesota -10 108 Utah 4 108 Wyoming 19 108 Nevada 33
109 Notre Dame -19 109 BYU -11 109 Colorado State 4 109 Stanford 18 109 Utah State 33
110 Iowa State -19 110 Utah -12 110 Minnesota 3 110 Utah State 17 110 Colorado 33
111 Western Michigan -19 111 Washington -13 111 Wyoming 2 111 Colorado 17 111 Minnesota 30
112 BYU -21 112 Colorado State -14 112 Colorado 2 112 Minnesota 17 112 Stanford 27
113 Boise State -21 113 Colorado -14 113 Utah State 1 113 California 17 113 California 26
114 Utah -22 114 Utah State -14 114 Hawaii 0 114 Boise State 11 114 Boise State 24
115 Washington State -22 115 Wyoming -15 115 Boise State -2 115 Idaho 3 115 Idaho 14
116 Colorado -22 116 Boise State -15 116 Washington -7 116 Hawaii 0 116 Washington State 6
117 Idaho -23 117 Oregon State -16 117 Idaho -8 117 Washington -1 117 Washington 5
118 Utah State -23 118 Oregon -17 118 Oregon -9 118 Oregon -2 118 Oregon 5
119 Colorado State -24 119 Idaho -19 119 Oregon State -10 119 Washington State -3 119 Oregon State 4
120 Wyoming -25 120 Washington State -20 120 Washington State -12 120 Oregon State -3 120 Hawaii 0

Teams Sorted Alphabetically

School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 School 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00
Air Force 107 105 101 98 97 Kansas 89 95 94 91 88 Purdue 99 90 83 76 75
Akron 72 62 55 50 43 Kansas State 96 102 98 95 95 Rice 21 25 25 25 24
Alabama 19 19 17 16 16 Kent State 69 61 54 51 45 Rutgers 48 48 57 66 70
Arizona 73 84 96 100 104 Kentucky 70 63 60 56 55 San Diego State 42 45 52 67 76
Arizona State 64 75 92 94 98 Louisiana Tech 25 21 21 18 14 San Jose State 77 88 97 101 106
Arkansas 56 55 56 55 62 Louisiana-Lafayette 18 18 16 14 15 SMU 23 22 22 22 18
Arkansas State 51 46 42 34 33 Louisiana-Monroe 22 20 20 15 11 South Carolina 12 12 15 19 22
Army 52 58 63 69 74 Louisville 75 66 64 62 63 South Florida 1 2 2 4 9
Auburn 8 9 8 5 4 LSU 17 17 18 20 19 Southern Miss 14 13 13 10 7
Ball State 93 80 71 65 59 Marshall 60 56 48 47 40 Stanford 78 97 103 109 112
Baylor 27 29 30 33 34 Maryland 36 39 40 43 47 Syracuse 66 73 79 86 86
Boise State 113 116 115 114 114 Memphis 45 40 31 29 28 TCU 28 27 26 26 26
Boston College 62 77 93 99 103 Miami 7 7 10 17 25 Temple 44 43 46 48 52
Bowling Green 90 76 68 61 56 Miami (OH) 84 69 62 54 51 Tennessee 41 33 32 32 32
Buffalo 74 67 72 72 73 Michigan 95 86 76 74 71 Texas 34 38 41 44 49
BYU 112 109 107 104 102 Michigan State 103 96 87 82 79 Texas A&M 24 26 28 31 31
California 80 99 105 113 113 Middle Tennessee 47 41 33 30 29 Texas Tech 67 71 75 84 83
Central Michigan 97 93 86 81 78 Minnesota 100 108 110 112 111 Toledo 91 78 70 64 58
Cincinnati 81 68 65 60 61 Mississippi State 26 23 23 23 20 Troy 9 8 6 2 1
Clemson 15 16 19 21 21 Missouri 83 81 77 80 81 Tulane 13 14 14 13 10
Colorado 116 113 112 111 110 Navy 39 36 36 37 38 Tulsa 59 59 58 57 60
Colorado State 119 112 109 105 101 NC State 32 35 38 40 46 UAB 16 15 12 9 3
Connecticut 58 70 85 92 96 Nebraska 104 106 104 103 100 UCF 2 1 1 1 2
Duke 35 37 39 41 44 Nevada 85 101 102 106 108 UCLA 37 51 66 77 84
Eastern Michigan 94 83 73 68 64 New Mexico 87 91 95 93 91 UNLV 63 72 80 87 89
ECU 29 31 34 36 39 New Mexico State 82 85 90 89 90 USC 38 52 67 78 85
FIU 5 6 7 11 17 North Carolina 33 34 37 39 42 Utah 114 110 108 107 105
Florida 4 5 4 6 8 North Texas 30 28 27 27 27 Utah State 118 114 113 110 109
Florida Atlantic 3 3 5 8 12 Northern Illinois 105 98 89 83 80 UTEP 79 82 88 88 87
Florida State 6 4 3 3 5 Northwestern 102 100 91 85 82 Vanderbilt 49 47 43 38 35
Fresno State 61 74 84 90 92 Notre Dame 109 92 78 73 68 Virginia 43 42 44 45 50
Georgia 11 11 11 12 13 Ohio 68 60 51 49 41 Virginia Tech 46 44 45 46 48
Georgia Tech 10 10 9 7 6 Ohio State 76 65 61 58 57 Wake Forest 31 32 35 35 37
Hawaii 71 89 114 116 120 Oklahoma 55 57 59 63 66 Washington 88 111 116 117 117
Houston 20 24 24 24 23 Oklahoma State 65 64 69 71 72 Washington State 115 120 120 119 116
Idaho 117 119 117 115 115 Ole Miss 40 30 29 28 30 West Virginia 53 50 49 52 53
Illinois 92 87 82 79 77 Oregon 101 118 118 118 118 Western Kentucky 57 53 47 42 36
Indiana 86 79 74 70 67 Oregon State 98 117 119 120 119 Western Michigan 111 94 81 75 69
Iowa 106 103 99 97 94 Penn State 50 49 53 59 65 Wisconsin 108 104 100 96 93
Iowa State 110 107 106 102 99 Pittsburgh 54 54 50 53 54 Wyoming 120 115 111 108 107

Added 12/03/2009  

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Tom Brennan, © 2009